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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Despite whatever happens politically after Castro dies trade will probably increase between Cuba and the US with his passing. Then all of us will be hooping and hollering right? Soon people will be gorging themselves on Cuban cigars, and Cuba will see the money start pouring in. Whata day huh? But I think the market for Cubans will change. We are Americans and we love good stuff for a good price, the one problem is that Cubans are so expensive; I don't think people would put up with it for long. I mean $20-$30 a stick?! The average consumer will go ape at those prices. Sure a great Cuban can beat anything but an average Cuban is just that, average. I know some of us here wouldn't mind prices like that but the majority of Americans I don't think would put up with it. I don't think people really realize how good we have it here. We can smoke some amazing cigars from Nicaragua, Honduras, and Dominica. Most of Europe has the choice of very expensive cubans or cheap dry cured crap from the Dutch and Denmark. We have Punch, C.A.O, El Rey del Mundo, and Padron, and all for under $6! My main point is that after the fad appeal wears off Americans are still going to reach for their none Cubans as everyday smokes.

What do you guys think?
 

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I think with a whole new market opened up to the Cubans, the prices of their cigars will be forced to go down. I don't know how much, but that is my guess. I don't think a good Cuban will ever be as cheap as the others though. The trick for Cuba will be to keep the quality and consistancy very high. That way they will always distinguish their cigars from the rest.
 

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I think it becomes a matter of supply and demand. Cuban cigar prices are not gauged on the price in the US. Even if a US market opened up the Cubans would not be able to match demand...even close....and so demand would far exceed supply. Prices would go through the roof. I like things just the way they are, even if it is possibly a little selfish. MHO :u
 

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falconpunch99 said:
We are Americans and we love good stuff for a good price, the one problem is that Cubans are so expensive; I don't think people would put up with it for long. I mean $20-$30 a stick?! The average consumer will go ape at those prices. Sure a great Cuban can beat anything but an average Cuban is just that, average.
What do you guys think?
i think... welcome to Club Stogie.
also, I think you need to stop reading CA ratings/prices if you think they cost that much (maybe in canada and UK - but so do the non-cuban cigars).
lastly, if an average cuban cigar is average, what do you compare that to? is it still just an average "cuban" cigar, or is it just an average "cigar" when compared to a dominican, honduran, nicarauguan, etc?
 

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IHT said:
lastly, if an average cuban cigar is average, what do you compare that to? is it still just an average "cuban" cigar, or is it just an average "cigar" when compared to a dominican, honduran, nicarauguan, etc?
IHT, what are your thoughts on that? I've heard this bantered around for a while now, but no one really addresses it.
 

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Navydoc said:
I think it becomes a matter of supply and demand. Cuban cigar prices are not gauged on the price in the US. Even if a US market opened up the Cubans would not be able to match demand...even close....and so demand would far exceed supply. Prices would go through the roof. I like things just the way they are, even if it is possibly a little selfish. MHO :u
Yup. Cigar boom part deux. Everyone wants them, prices skyrocket, quality drops, 90% of consumers get bored with pretending to be a cigar smoker, they get back into their BMW 318s and drive away from cigar stores forever, prices and quality return, and the market returns to a more stable state.
 

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Welcome to Club Stogie flaconpunch99! Another Texan!

Very few Cubans cost $20-$30 a stick. We have an ape in our midst that smokes 3 to 4 sticks a day, and at least two of them will be a $2.50 or Quintero Brevas. Even if he has an unhealthy compulsion to correct people's spelling; I trust his taste in cigars a lot.

I think an average cuban cigar would be closer to the $6 mark and plenty of people will shell out $10 a stick for them when the market opens.

Personally I am most excited about cigars blended with Cuban tobacco, but that is a long time coming I suspect. It will take makers some time to train their rollers to usel Cuban filler for proper draw as well. I believe that day is coming though.

-Matt-

falconpunch99 said:
Despite whatever happens politically after Castro dies trade will probably increase between Cuba and the US with his passing. Then all of us will be hooping and hollering right? Soon people will be gorging themselves on Cuban cigars, and Cuba will see the money start pouring in. Whata day huh? But I think the market for Cubans will change. We are Americans and we love good stuff for a good price, the one problem is that Cubans are so expensive; I don't think people would put up with it for long. I mean $20-$30 a stick?! The average consumer will go ape at those prices. Sure a great Cuban can beat anything but an average Cuban is just that, average. I know some of us here wouldn't mind prices like that but the majority of Americans I don't think would put up with it. I don't think people really realize how good we have it here. We can smoke some amazing cigars from Nicaragua, Honduras, and Dominica. Most of Europe has the choice of very expensive cubans or cheap dry cured crap from the Dutch and Denmark. We have Punch, C.A.O, El Rey del Mundo, and Padron, and all for under $6! My main point is that after the fad appeal wears off Americans are still going to reach for their none Cubans as everyday smokes.

What do you guys think?
 

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I agree with Navydoc. Demand will skyrocket and the prices will follow. The Havanas are not high priced today because of US demand, but demand throughout the rest of the world. An open US market will only increase demand. Simple economics. High demand + not enough product = astronomical prices.

jason
 

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Jeff said:
IHT, what are your thoughts on that? I've heard this bantered around for a while now, but no one really addresses it.
depends on what you call an "average" cuban cigar? have you had an average one? if so, was it still a good "cigar", or just an "average" cigar? i've had many a machine made cuban cigar that has tasted mucho better than some of the super premium non-cuban cigars, and you can get a BOX of those for about the price of 3 or 4 super premium non-cuban singles.
i know some elder gorillas disagree with me, but i CAN enjoy some machine made cuban cigars more than some overpriced Opus or 1926.

again, everyones tastes are different.

jeff, have you had what you would call just an average cuban cigar? i've had some cuban cigars that haven't been terrific, but still have been head and shoulders above a super premium non-cuban.

and, no, these are not "cuban elitist" comments, just my own opinion... and who the hell am i?
 

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IHT said:
jeff, have you had what you would call just an average cuban cigar? i've had some cuban cigars that haven't been terrific, but still have been head and shoulders above a super premium non-cuban.
Thanks for the reply. I havn't had what I would call average cubans yet. I have an assortment from a bomb I was gifted that I havn't tried yet. Perhaps then. :)
 

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Jeff said:
Thanks for the reply. I havn't had what I would call average cubans yet. I have an assortment from a bomb I was gifted that I havn't tried yet. Perhaps then. :)
cool. well, be sure to let us know what you think after sampling your bomblets.
 

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Nice first post, welcome aboard!

As many have said above, Cuban cigars are a world market, not influenced much by the USA. Cuba is already producing about as much as it can, and Altadis is trying to increase this a bit by stopping exports of bales of tobacco. Soon, all Cuban tobacco will be rolled in Cuba.

Add demand without adding supply and prices must go up. As Cuban prices go up worldwide, other tobacco producers will make some inroads in markets they were previously excluded from. This will decrease demand for cuban cigars. In the end, balance will be found, but if I had to guess, I'd say Cubans will be more expensive.

As for an average Cuban being "just average", well, IMHO, an average Cuban is better than all but a few high end domestics, and is cheaper.
 

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The Cuban cigar industry will have a major shakeout after Castro bites it & Cuba becomes democratic to decide who owns the names, factories and farms that were stolen from the rightful owners by Castro. It MUST be privatized and it must be handed back to the original owners or just compensation provided. I think people will want their land and factories back, which will not be simple and will causes a major shakeout in the industry.

Prices for Cuban cigars will initially rocket due to the novelty (U.S. demand, obviously), but will stabilize within 2-3 years. I expect the American demand will result initially in lower quality and higher prices, but the opportunity also exists for much more capital investment and improved quality eventually.
 

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Welcome. Nice thread starter. I have a 5 year old who runs around the house in his towel cape yelling FALCONPUNCH!!!!! at the top of his lungs. You must play a video game or two.
 

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If the flavor profile of the "average" cuban is "on".......properly aged, not sick, yada yada yada, IMHO, they are head and shouders above the "domestics".......that's my opinion because I love the cuban flavor profile.

BUT.......I've had many cubans that were below average and were not "on". There are many domestics that have a profile that fit my taste and are inexpensive enough to smoke everyday (sometimes 2-4 a day :p ). I lean toward the twangy, strong domestics like AF SG, Diplomas, JdN Antano, ERH, etc.

However, if I had an unlimited supply of JL#2 or Mag 46's at a reasonable price, I would probably leave the domestics in the dust. :z

If the ban is lifted, prices will go through the cieling and quality will go down. Hopefully, they will have enough sense to regulate the process as production increases. If not, we'll be buying $15 dog rockets. :D
 

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Discussion Starter · #16 ·
txmatt said:
Very few Cubans cost $20-$30 a stick. We have an ape in our midst that smokes 3 to 4 sticks a day, and at least two of them will be a $2.50 or Quintero Brevas. Even if he has an unhealthy compulsion to correct people's spelling; I trust his taste in cigars a lot.

I think an average cuban cigar would be closer to the $6 mark and plenty of people will shell out $10 a stick for them when the market opens.
Its true not all Cubans cost $20 and $30, at least not here. I'm kinda coming from a Can/Eng view point who tax heavily. I don't think the US would have tariff-free trade with Cuba and combined with fad demand and government taxes I think we would see high prices for Cubans. Soon average smokers with empty pockets would turn right back to their $3 and $4 sticks.

IHT's comment about average Cubans maybe true, but what I want to say is you don't have to go Cuban to enjoy time spent smokin' a good cigar, which really is my main point.
 

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Discussion Starter · #17 ·
radar said:
Welcome. Nice thread starter. I have a 5 year old who runs around the house in his towel cape yelling FALCONPUNCH!!!!! at the top of his lungs. You must play a video game or two.
LOL, you called it. I was never good at that game and rarely played it. People always beat the tar out of me, but I thought that Captain Falcon's punch line was so funny. I never thought someone would catch that. You must have a cool son or daughter. :D

Great posts so far!
 

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Navydoc and slowhand nailed it. When they announce that Fidel is gone. I'll be running to the computer that same moment and max out one of my credit cards. Cubans cigars will no be the same after that event for a very long time.
 

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falconpunch99 said:
IHT's comment about average Cubans maybe true, but what I want to say is you don't have to go Cuban to enjoy time spent smokin' a good cigar, which really is my main point.
i didn't come anywhere close to reading that from your 1st post.

and since that is your point, i would agree. the cigar doesn't have to be great to have a good time. it's always best to be having a good time with buddies and having a cigar...
 

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falconpunch99 said:
I don't think the US would have tariff-free trade with Cuba and combined with fad demand and government taxes I think we would see high prices for Cubans. Soon average smokers with empty pockets would turn right back to their $3 and $4 sticks.
I don't know if I agree with this. I would expect any halfway decent democratic government in Cuba would get the same free trade deal we provide Red China, Mexico, Canada and are negociating with the rest of Latin America - Congress will want to make up for the 40+ years of having Castro giving the US the finger across the strait & help support a democracy there.

http://www.taxadmin.org/fta/rate/otp.html

Tobacco (cigarettes, cigars, etc) is taxed mainly at the state/local levels, so some states have low and some high taxes. In my state (VA) the tax is 10% of retail cigar cost. In Washington it is 129.42%.

The Feds seem to tax cigars at a lower rate, 4-5 cents per box of 20
http://www.ttb.gov/alcohol/info/atftaxes.htm#Tobacco

Low tax states are unlikely to start taxing cigars at a higher rate just because Cuban cigars are available.

You're right though, not everybody is going to drop their cheap cigars for Cubans, but it will be a complete shock to the market as big as the original embargo. OTOH, who is to say that cheap cuban peso cigars or other low end smokes will not be available in the low end of the market?
 
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