Speculation is fun. Here is what I think would happen if the Market would become open today.
The first 3 years would be total mayhem. Increase in sales would cause shortages.
I think quality would actually be fine in the puros, but we would see many new blends. The word Cuban would be construed to mean any cigar that has small traces of actual Cuban leaf. (We won't be fooled, but the casual smoker will be)
Because of the above actions, prices will be insanely high, many newcomers to the business selling bad Cuban Blends will scare off the newbies and the market will level off by 2006-07.
Continued efforts by anti-smoking campaigns, taxes and economic pressures will take the thrill out of Cuban for most folks. I am a newcomer when it comes to cigars, but I smoked about 50 different brands during the last boom (domestics) and all of them pale to the cigars I am buying today. Quality is up, way up in domestic production. I see them as a cushion during the 3 years of insane Cuban sales.
This hobby has taught me one thing, time takes time....most folks do not have the patience to age a cigar to it's best. They will smoke a harsh green Boli and think, "What's all the HubBub about?" Then buy a cheaper blend and then give up. Sure a few thousand will do it right, but I really don't think the millions who will surely try a legal Cuban will stick it out past the novelty.
It won't be like Coors, which wasn't available in my area till '78, it was always a prize to have a 6 pack of Coors, till it was for sale at all the 7/11s. Then no one drank it. Cubans will always be Prized. They will always cost 30 to 50%+ more than Domestics. Once all has settled, Cigars will be at the finest level of quality from all reaches of the globe. Just watchout for the Mega- McVitola Mentality. We have that covered here, this is the real deal, Club Stogie.
It is written! This is the Future. Now how can I make a Million in those 3 years?
