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Chimpus herfustus
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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
the embargo was lifted tomorrow? Or next month or next year. Barring LLGs running rampant in the streets with joy, would Cuban cigar makers be able to keep up with the nuclear cigar boom that would inevitably ensue? And prices? Might be a mixed blessing for a good long while. Thoughts Gorillas?
 

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This is going to happen at some point in the future. When is anyone's guess. Prices due to supply and demand will rise sharply. As far as label and copyrights I've got to believe that these issuses will be worked out in some manner. Just how all this will happen is a large unknown. For me I'm stocking up for the future price increases.
 

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SilvrBck,

Altadis bought Consolidated Cigar a couple of years ago. From that purchase they got a huge share of the US premium cigar market and the trademarks for maybe half the important Cuban cigar brands. A year later (more or less) Altadis purchased 50% of Habanos SA, the Cuban cigar monopoly.

If the embargo is lifted, Altadis will have control of many Cuban cigar trademarks both in Cuba and the US. Therefore, they won't have any problems with the trademarks since they own them in both countries.

Also, since Altadis is a European tobacco company, they will have some influence over how Cuban cigars are distributed on the Continent, which is the number one market for Cuban cigars.

... rjs
 

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According to something I read in an old JR catalog, the US trademark owners would have exclusive rights to sell the cuban cigars that bear the trademarked name.

What are the chances a Cuban Sancho Panza will sell for the same price as the Honduran? Slim to none my friends. What a shame.
 

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:u The embargo WILL be lifted some day. But probably not while Fidel is still alive.:u
 

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DymOnamic
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Speculation is fun. Here is what I think would happen if the Market would become open today.

The first 3 years would be total mayhem. Increase in sales would cause shortages.

I think quality would actually be fine in the puros, but we would see many new blends. The word Cuban would be construed to mean any cigar that has small traces of actual Cuban leaf. (We won't be fooled, but the casual smoker will be)

Because of the above actions, prices will be insanely high, many newcomers to the business selling bad Cuban Blends will scare off the newbies and the market will level off by 2006-07.

Continued efforts by anti-smoking campaigns, taxes and economic pressures will take the thrill out of Cuban for most folks. I am a newcomer when it comes to cigars, but I smoked about 50 different brands during the last boom (domestics) and all of them pale to the cigars I am buying today. Quality is up, way up in domestic production. I see them as a cushion during the 3 years of insane Cuban sales.

This hobby has taught me one thing, time takes time....most folks do not have the patience to age a cigar to it's best. They will smoke a harsh green Boli and think, "What's all the HubBub about?" Then buy a cheaper blend and then give up. Sure a few thousand will do it right, but I really don't think the millions who will surely try a legal Cuban will stick it out past the novelty.

It won't be like Coors, which wasn't available in my area till '78, it was always a prize to have a 6 pack of Coors, till it was for sale at all the 7/11s. Then no one drank it. Cubans will always be Prized. They will always cost 30 to 50%+ more than Domestics. Once all has settled, Cigars will be at the finest level of quality from all reaches of the globe. Just watchout for the Mega- McVitola Mentality. We have that covered here, this is the real deal, Club Stogie.

It is written! This is the Future. Now how can I make a Million in those 3 years?;)
 

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DymOnamic
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edisonbird said:
I kinda like it the way it is now, :w
Me too! I'm future tripping. It seems to be just the right balance as it is today. Competition is for real, Inflated prices for the most part are being held at bay. I just like to speculate, besides I'm always making a million $$$ when I speculate. :u :w :u
 

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Chimpus herfustus
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Discussion Starter · #11 ·
Since posting this thread I have had this subject on my mind quite a bit. Here's my prediction. I think that we will see a significant decrease in domestic prices, an increase in domestic quality, and a mass extinction of many smaller or sub-premium brands. Don't think it would be the time to debut a botique brand unless it was of stellar quality. It would be a good or even great time for those who like quality domestics and an unsettling time for those ISOM lovers out there. But, over time, people will finally be able to get the best of both worlds. The novelty of cuban cigars will wear off, pathetic cigars with habanos stamped on the box will fade away with the crowds, and the market will stabilize. Look at the domestic quality now, a few years after the boom, it is great. Imagine what it will be like a few years after the imbargo is lifted. Still, the best of cigars (ISOMs), like the best of anything, will be expensive but worth the wait and the cost. JMHO.
SB
 

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Oringinally Posted By rjs
Altadis bought Consolidated Cigar a couple of years ago. From that purchase they got a huge share of the US premium cigar market and the trademarks for maybe half the important Cuban cigar brands. A year later (more or less) Altadis purchased 50% of Habanos SA, the Cuban cigar monopoly.

If the embargo is lifted, Altadis will have control of many Cuban cigar trademarks both in Cuba and the US. Therefore, they won't have any problems with the trademarks since they own them in both countries.

Also, since Altadis is a European tobacco company, they will have some influence over how Cuban cigars are distributed on the Continent, which is the number one market for Cuban cigars.
One has to think that Altadis' recent acquisitions are not merely a matter of coincidences. They obviously are working off of a master plan - as the dots are easily connected.

Once you have acquired the rights to many Cuban cigar trademarks in both Cuba and the US (i.e. the Consolidated and Habanos acquisitions) the next desirous thing you would want is a well established distribution network for getting your products out to market. Enter JR Cigars.

With retail operations that include several specialty cigar stores, three discount outlet stores, direct-mail catalog and a wholesale mail-order catalog distribution to more than 8,000 smoke shops, liquor stores, taverns, and other retailers, JR & Altadis would be more than well positioned to immediately capitalized on a lifted embargo.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the JR stores join the 88+ outlets in roughly 50 other countries as the US's La Casa del Habano stores (Franchises granted by Habanos S.A)
 

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Wow, this is good question. Honestly, I don't expect a serious change except in availability and freedom from the threat of confiscation. Cubans will still be considered super-premiums and will carry that price tag as do current premiums wines, scotches, etc. in the US. With the current cost of shipping, I don't see the final product in my humidor increasing dramatically in prices. There will probably be an increase in mediocre Cubans to compete with the current domestic premiums, and I would expect that to be based on an expansion of the growing operations into less desirable, but still Cuban, growing regions.

The prospect for cuban/non-cuban blends is intriguing as Relaxensmoke points out. That is probably the most unpredictable part of the market.

Also, what happens when the Europeans (Altadis) gets pissed with us and cut our supplies? Yikes
!
 

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I don't see much of a difference. If you want one now you'll get them. Its like the big drug debate. If you let mary jane become legal it will drop in price. The cigars would almost surely becoome cheaper. One thing it will do is make embargo Cubans that much more valuable.
 

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There are certain mushrooms that when added to hot water and a few tea bags opens the world up to endless possibilities...... :al

Plus I love the Dead.
 

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with the scenerio of altadis and JR as described earlier our Gov't. would probably again ban them because it is a "monopoly." He He He awe shucks :fu again!
 

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To give dittos to much of what has been said, I also don't think that things will change a whole lot in the premium market. I just believe that Cuba will not sacrifice that market not just in the States, but world wide as well. I do think that it will be a year or two before the dust settles in the entry level market where much of the activity will probably be. I really don't see marginal smokers letting go of big bucks for something that holds for them mild interest at best. Does anyone really think that newbies will let go of $400 bucks for a box of Sir Winstons?
 
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